The United States elections may be the most important internationally. The monitoring that is being done in Spain is comparable to that of the national elections, and the impact will not be so immediate, but it will end up affecting us.
This is neither new nor surprising, given the relevance of an actor like the United States in the international theater. And more with Donald Trump at the helm.
At the time of this writing, about 12 hours have passed since the polling stations closed in the American country, but we still do not know who will be the next president. Not all the votes have been counted but, even when the count is finalized, there is a foreseeable legal battle ahead, as the president has advanced for now.
We are going to focus the analysis of these elections by focusing on the veto that the Trump administration imposed on Huawei.
What could Trump do if he won
Photo by John Dean
This scenario is the most obvious since, if not even the pandemic caused by COVID-19 has managed to stop the New Yorker, it seems that he will not retract any of the previous measures he has taken, and that includes the veto.
In the last hours we have seen certain approaches and we could see that Huawei can buy screens from Samsung, photographic sensors from Sony or processors from Qualcomm, as long as the US government does not change their mind.
Internationally, all this will be irrelevant if Google cannot reinstall its serial apps on the Chinese firm’s terminals.
Even if China continues to keep Huawei afloat, the firm’s investment level should decline as resources, and profits, would be lower than in previous years.
Biden could turn things around, but it’s not a certainty
Photo by Jonathan Simcoe
To say that Biden is a more focused politician than Donald Trump is not saying much, since the businessman is almost the antithesis of what is expected of a public office.
But whoever was vice president with Barack Obama has a deserved reputation for being a man of dialogue who likes to talk, but also to listen. Even when there are no cameras in front. This allows us to hypothesize with an improvement in relations between the United States and China, something that a priori would be positive for both countries, as well as for the rest of the world.
Although for those of us who are technology fans, the case of Huawei is the most relevant of the United States’ relationship with China in recent years, the reality is that tariffs and the trade war have been the first problem.
Joe Biden could maintain a somewhat lower profile than Trump in his international relations, and ties would possibly be restored, but that does not guarantee that, for example, Huawei can enter a market like the United States.
At the beginning of 2019, the Asian firm was about to start selling in the United States with operators such as AT&T, although the government ordered them to stop operations. Shortly after, the veto was imposed that would change the future of Huawei.
As I say, it is unlikely that Huawei will receive a license to operate within the United States, at a time when even European countries have decided remove the Chinese firm from its licenses to create 5G networks.
However, the Biden administration could once again allow Huawei to use Google services, which are still an American tool for deployment around the world (except China, curiously). This would give a great oxygen balloon to Huawei, which would not return to what it was immediately but would have the ability to maneuver to restructure its future. And that’s the key.
What would Huawei do with Biden as president
When Trump proved that the Huawei veto was going nowhere, I wrote an article entitled Trump has opened Pandora’s box with the Huawei veto.
In it, he raised the possibility that Huawei, supported by the Chinese government, would decide that its future was going to be, yes or yes, far from Google and the United States. Donald Trump had given every company on the planet a reason to walk away from relationships with American firms. And China didn’t seem too concerned about it.
Huawei’s Harmony OS will be a great rival to Android by being Open SourceAlthough Harmony OS is not an exclusive operating system for mobiles, when it is launched as Open Source, it becomes a direct rival to Android.
We have to think that China is a state with leaders who look very long-term. So much so that they seem like eons to Westerners, led as we are by a political class incapable of looking beyond a few months into the future.
I explain this because what could happen is that, even if Huawei re-established some ties with American firms, The Chinese government will support the giant to become what Google or Apple are now, within a decade or two.
The founder of Huawei on the US veto: “We are prepared to survive more attacks”The CEO of Huawei has attended the world economic forum, where he has confessed that he believes that the United States could attack them more, adding that it will not affect them.
Yes, we may think that is outrageous, but remember where Google and Apple were two decades ago. The first had just been created and was taking its first steps. The second had just hired Steve Jobs again.
A change of cycle in which Huawei is a key piece
There are many analysts who think that we are facing a moment in history in which the United States begins to give up its world leadership and China is the power with the best chance of taking over.
Telecommunications can become the new battlefield and Huawei has a lot to say there. The firm we know from smartphones may end up being more similar to IBM today than Apple, but of course you can be sure that it is not going anywhere.
The entry What happens to Huawei after the US elections? He appears first in The Free Android.
